Techniques and Procedures for Improving Decision-Making

Identifying and Structuring Objectives

“Improving the Generation of Decision Objectives”, with Samuel T. Bond and Kurt A. Carlson, Decision Analysis, 7, No. 3, 238-255, 2010.

“Developing Objectives and Attributes”, in Advances in Decision Analysis, W. Edwards, R.F. Miles, and Detlof von Winterfeldt (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, pp 104-128, 2007.

“Selecting Attributes to Measure the Achievement of Objectives”, with Robin S. Gregory, Operations Research, 53, No. 1, 1-11, 2005.

“Public Values and Public Policy”, in Decision Science and Technology, J. Shanteau, B.A. Mellers, David A. Schum (Eds.), Kluwer, Boston, 291-312, 1999.

“Structuring and Analyzing Values for Multiple-Issue Negotiations”, with H. Raiffa, in Negotiation Analysis, P. Young (Ed), University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, 131-151, 1991.

“Generating Objectives: Can Decision Makers Articulate What They Want?”, with Samuel T. Bond and Kurt A. Carlson, Management Science, 54, No. 1, 56-70, 2008.

“Eliciting Knowledge about Values for Public Policy Decisions”, International Journal of Information Technology and Decision Making, 5, No.4, 739-749. 2006.

“Modeling Values for Telecommunications Management”, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 48, August, 370-379, 2001.

“Establishing Research Objectives to Address Issues of Climate Change”, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 28, No. 1, 1-8, 1994.

“Structuring Objectives for Problems of Public Interest”, Operations Research, 36, 396-405, 1988.

Creating Alternatives

“Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives”, with Johannes Siebert, Operations Research, 63, No. 5, 1144-1158, 2015.

“Stimulating Creative Design Alternatives Using Customer Values”, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 34, No. 4, 450-459, 2004.

“Value-Focused Brainstorming”, Decision Analysis, 9, No. 4, 303-313, 2012.

“Creating Policy Alternatives Using Stakeholder Values”, with R. Gregory, Management Science, 40, 1035-1048, 1994.

Assessing Probabilities of Events

“Eliciting Probabilities from Experts in Complex Technical Problems”, with D. von Winterfeldt, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 38, 191-201, 1991.

“Probabilities Are Useful to Quantify Expert Judgments”, with D. von Winterfeldt, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 23, 293-298, 1988.

“On the Uses of Expert Judgment on Complex Technical Problems”, with D. von Winterfeldt, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 36, 83-86, 1989.

Thinking about Life-threatening Risks

“Personal Decisions Are the Leading Cause of Death”, Operations Research, 56, No.6, 1335-1347, 2008.

“Understanding Life-Threatening Risks”, Risk Analysis, 15, 627-637, 1995.

“Mortality Risks Induced by the Costs of Regulations”, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 8, 95-110, 1994.

“Mortality Risks Due to Economic Expenditures”, Risk Analysis, 10, 147-159, 1990.

“Why Indirect Health Risks of Regulations Should be Examined”, with D. von Winterfeldt, Interfaces, 16, 13-27, 1986.

“Issues in Evaluating Standards”, Interfaces, 13, 12-22, 1983.

“Risk Analysis: Understanding How Safe is Safe Enough?”, with S.L. Derby. Risk Analysis 1, 217-224, 1981.

“Approaches for Determining Acceptable Risk”, with B. Fischhoff, S. Lichtenstein, P. Slovic, and S. Derby. In Nuclear Power and Its Alternatives, Proceedings of the American Nuclear Society Meeting, Los Angeles, February, 27-29, 1980.

“Estimating Fatalities Induced by the Economic Costs of Regulations”, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 14, 5-23, 1997.

“Decisions about Life-Threatening Risks”, New England Journal of Medicine, 331, 193-196, 1994.

“A Prescriptive Risk Framework for Individual Health and Safety Decisions”, with D. von Winterfeldt, Risk Analysis, 11, 523-533, 1991.

“Facts to Guide Thinking about Life-Threatening Risks”, Proceedings of the 1988 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1988.

“Issues in Evaluating Risks of Fatalities”, Environmental Impact Assessment, Technology Assessment, and Risk Analysis, V.T. Covello, J.L. Mumpower, P.J.M. Stallen, and V.R.R. Uppuluri, (Eds.), Springer Verlag, Berlin, pp. 517-534, 1985.

“Evaluating Mortality Risks from an Organizational Perspective”, The Value of Life and Safety, M.W. Jones-Lee (Ed.), North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 217-227, 1982.

“Structuring Objectives for Evaluating Possible Nuclear Material Control and Accounting Regulations”, with Gary R. Smith. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC-12, 743-750, 1982.

Decision Analysis

“On the Foundations of Prescriptive Decision Analysis”, in Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications, W. Edwards (Ed.), Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 57-72, 1992.

“Decision Analysis: An Overview”, Operations Research, 30, 803-838, 1982.

“Multiattribute Decision Analysis”, in Methods of Operations Research, 35, W. Oettli and F. Steffens (Eds.), Atheneum/Hain/Scriptor/Hanbstein, Berlin, pp. 211-228, 1978.

“Decision Analysis for Siting for Nuclear Power Plants: The Relevance of Multiattribute Utility Theory”, with K. Nair, 1975,  Proceedings of the IEEE, Special Issue on Social Systems Engineering, K. Chen, M. Ghausi, and A. Sage (Eds.), March, pp. 494-501.

“Ethics, Decision Analysis, and Public Risks”, Risk Analysis, 4, 117-129, 1984.

“Examining Energy/Environment Policy Using Decision Analysis”, with W.A. Buehring and W.K. Foell. Energy Systems and Policy, 2, 341-367, 1978.

“Decision Analysis”, in Handbook of Operations Research, J.J. Moder and S.E. Elmaghraby (Eds.), Van Nostrand-Reinhold Company, New York, pp. 423-450, 1978.

Building Value Models and Multi-Attribute Utility Theory

“Practical Value Models”, with Detlof von Winterfeldt, in Advances in Decision Analysis, W. Edwards, R.F. Miles, and Detlof von Winterfeldt (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, pp 232-252, 2007.

“Your Money or Your Life: A Prescriptive Model for Health, Safety, and Consumption Decisions”, with James E. Smith, Management Science, 51, No. 9, 1309-1325, 2005.

“Building Models of Values”, European Journal of Operational Research, 37, 149-157, 1988.

“Analysis of Preference Dependencies Among Objectives”, Operations Research, 29, 1105-1120, 1981.

“Measurement Scales for Quantifying Attributes”, Behavioral Sciences, 26, 29-36, 1981.

“A Survey of Multiattribute Utility”, in Evaluation of Efficacy of Medical Action, A. Alperovitch, F.T. de Dombal, and F. Gremy (Eds.), North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 467-478, 1979.

“The Art of Assessing Multiattribute Utility Functions”, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 19, 267-310, 1977.

“Multiattribute Utility Analysis: A Brief Survey”, in Systems Theory in the Social Sciences, H. Bossel, S. Klaczko, and N. Muller (Eds.), Birkhauser-Verlag, Basel, Switzerland, 534-550, 1976.

“Additive Value Functions”, with H. Raiffa. In Theorie de la Decision et Applications, J.P. Ponssard and P-H-Tri (Eds.), Fondation Nationale Pour l’Enseignement de la Gestion des Enterprises, Paris, 1975.

“Seven Independence Concepts and Continuous Multiattribute Utility Functions”, with P.C. Fishburn. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 11, 294-327, 1974.

“Concepts of Independence in Multiattribute Utility Theory”, in Multiple Criterion Decision Making, J. Cochrane and M. Zeleny (Eds.), University of South Carolina Press, Columbia, South Carolina, pp. 62-71, 1973.

“An Illustrated Procedure for Assessing Multiattributed Utility Functions”, Sloan Management Review, Fall, 37-50, 1972.

“Utility Independence and Preferences for Multiattribute Consequences”, Operations Research, July-August, 875-893, 1971.

“Using Preferences for Multi-Attributed Alternatives”, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 14,169-74, 2006.

“Common Mistakes in Making Value Tradeoffs”, Operations Research, 50, 935-945, 2002.

“Structuring Public Utility Functions”, Operations Research Letters, 3, 1-4, 1984.

“Formal Analysis Including Value Judgments and Public Risk”, Toxic Substances Journal, 3, 8-22, 1981.

“Evaluating Alternatives Involving Potential Fatalities”, Operations Research, 28, 188-205, 1980.

“A Preliminary Model of Adversary Preferences”, Proceedings of the Lawrence Symposium on System and Decision Sciences, Western Periodicals, North Hollywood, California, 187-193, 1977.

“Quantifying Corporate Preferences for Policy Analysis”, in Multiple Criteria Decision Making, H. Thiriez and S. Zionts (Eds.), Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 293-304, 1976.

“Assessing and Analyzing Preferences Concerning Multiple Objectives: An Interactive Computer Program”, with A. Sicherman. Behavioral Science, 21, 173-182, 1976.

“Generalized Utility Independence and Some Implications”, with P.C. Fishburn. Operations Research, 33, 928-940, 1975.

“Multiplicative Utility Functions”, Operations Research, January-February, pp. 24-34. Also published in Systems and Management Annual 1975, C.W. Churchman (Ed.), Petrocelli/ Charter, New York, pp. 229-241, 1974.

“Risk Independence and Multiattributed Utility Functions”, Econometrica, January, 27-34, 1973.

“Utility Functions for Multiattributed Consequences”, Management Science, January, 276-287, 1972.

“Assessment of Multiattribute Preference”, Science, 168, June 19, 1491-1492, 1970.

“Evaluating Multidimensional Situations Using a Quasi-Separable Utility Function”, IEEE Transactions on Man-Machine Systems, June, MMS9, 25-28, 1968.

“Quasi-Separable Utility Functions”, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, December, 551-565, 1968.

Evaluating Equity Issues

“Evaluating Decision Strategies for Equity of Public Risks”, with R.L. Winkler, Operations Research, 33, 955-970, 1985.

“Utility Functions for Equity and Public Risk”, Management Science, 26, 345-353, 1980.

“Equity and Public Risk”, Operations Research, 28, 527-534, 1980.